After a significant slowdown in year-over-year growth in 8 markets covered by BDSA in November, cannabis sales growth had accelerated again in December and January. According to the BDSA, year-over-year growth in February was slower than in November. February sales were down in all markets from January, but the three days less were responsible for most of the sequential declines across the states. In this review, we’ll look at the markets one at a time, starting with the more mature western markets and ending with the newer eastern markets.
BDSA provides coverage for Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, and Oregon. In January, growth ranged from 4% in Arizona to 28% in Oregon year over year.
Arizona switched to adult use in late January, and BDSA only forecasts medical sales, down 17.6% from January to $ 72.3 million and up only 4% year over year. Annual growth in January was down from 30.3% in December to 23.9%, after 28.4% in November. Flower sales increased 12% while pre-roll sales increased 31%. Concentrates and dietary supplements decreased by 3% and 10% respectively compared to the previous year.
Revenue of $ 287 million decreased 8.3% sequentially and increased 16.9% year over year. This is the slowest growth rate since June. Over the past six months, the average growth has been more than 25%. Despite the slowdown last month, year-over-year growth was more than double what it was a year ago. The flower, which accounted for 39% of sales, gained 27.6% and the pre-rolls 26.4%. Concentrates (+ 9.3%) and food supplements (+ 7.2%) grew more slowly than the overall market.
Possibly impacted by the pandemic, revenue declined 11.9% sequentially from $ 167.2 million as it increased 18.4% year over year. This was the lowest annual growth since last spring when the pandemic broke out. Since April, the average year-over-year growth has been more than 32%. Flower sales rose 26% over the month and pre-rolls 21%. The concentrates grew 15% while uptake increased 19%.
Revenue declined 6.1% to $ 69.7 million, an annual growth of 19.6%, slightly higher than January’s 19.1% growth. Nevada was badly hit in the spring and will face easy comparisons for the next several months. Flower sales continued to drive growth, increasing 38% while concentrates were up 22%. Due to a change in the composition of the customer base from tourists to locals, pre-rolls are down almost 16% year over year, with intake increasing only 1%.
Revenue of $ 88.7 million decreased 11.5% from January but increased 28% year over year. Oregon has been one of the fastest growing markets for the past few quarters, with average sales growth of 40% year over year. February growth was slightly higher than last February’s 27% year-over-year growth, which was the lowest growth last year. Concentrates grew 33%, just ahead of the 32% growth in flower sales. Pre-rolls increased 24% while intake increased 19% year over year.
In the newer markets, the growth rate is also lower than in November. Monitoring sequential rates may also be important in these states, and they have increased slightly in each of the states. Note that we wrote about February data for Illinois based on data for the state a month ago. We found that February sales were 9% lower than in January. BDSA provides more comprehensive data than the state and is divided into product types. The state hasn’t released medical sales yet, but March adult sales increased 35% sequentially, up 204% year over year.
Revenue decreased 9% sequentially to $ 110.3 million and increased 85% year over year. Flower sales increased 150% and pre-rolls increased 107%. Concentrates grew 55% while intake increased 42% year over year.
Revenue declined 11.9% in February as it rose 49.8% year over year to $ 40.9 million. This was the slowest year-over-year growth and was below November’s 59% growth for the second straight month. Ingestibles resulted in 70% growth with flowers gaining 64%. Concentrates were up 42% while pre-roll sales were up 18% year over year.
Revenue was $ 100 million, down 8% from January and up 50% year over year. Like Nevada, comparisons will be a lot easier over the next several months, as the state cut adult sales last spring. Similar to Maryland, ingestibles were the fastest growing part of the market, growing 69%. Concentrates grew 49% while flowers and pre-rolls, together 57% of the market, grew 46% year over year.
For readers who want to dig deeper into the cannabis markets in these eight and more states, including segmentation by additional product categories, brand and item details, longer history, and segmentation by product attributes, learn how to get full access with the BDSA BDSA solutions to the most accurate and actionable data and analysis.
Alan is based in Houston and leverages his experience as the founder of the online community 420 Investor, the first and largest due diligence platform focused on publicly traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to seek new ways to connect the industry and fuel its sustainable growth. At New Cannabis Ventures he is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before focusing on the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan worked as an independent research analyst in 1986 after spending over two decades in research and portfolio management. Alan is a prolific writer with over 650 articles published since 2007 on Seeking Alpha where he has 70,000 followers. He is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and a frequent source for media such as the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan: Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | E-mail
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Arizona, bdsa, california, cannabis data analysis, colorado, illinois, maryland, massachusetts, nevada, oregon